Job Growth Slows Again in First Q 2018
Minnesota Chore Outlook for 1st Quarter 2018 to 1st Quarter 2019
by Dave Senf
david.senf@state.mn.us
May 2018
U.S. Economic Outlook
U.S. task growth over the first four months of 2018 has matched the first four months of 2017, averaging i.6 percent on a year-over-year footing. That rate is on par with last twelvemonth'due south almanac boilerplate 1.5 percent job growth which was down slightly from the 1.seven percent in 2016. Nonfarm payroll numbers accept expanded by an average of 1.vii percent since 2011, peaking in 2015 with ii.1 percent growth (run across Figure one). U.S. job growth is expected by most forecasts to inch upwardly to 1.7 or 1.8 percent in 2018 every bit the U.S. economy is expected to remain solid over the next 12 months.
The current expansion is now the second-longest on record, having passed the 1962-69 expansion in May. If growth continues through July 2019 this expansion will supervene upon the 1991-2001 expansion to go the longest on record. This expansion has been steady only unspectacular with Gdp growth subpar compared to by expansion levels. Real Gdp growth picked up in 2017 to 2.3 percent from ane.5 percent in 2016 and is expected to climb to 2.7 or 2.viii percent this yr with the tailwinds from fiscal stimulus – the tax cut and increased federal spending – and stronger economic growth across almost of the world.
The cardinal question is if there is enough slack in the labor market to support an acceleration in GDP growth. Gdp growth arises from productivity gains and/or increases in employment. The U.S. unemployment rate dipped to 3.9 percent in April, the everyman level since late 2000. Other indicators are also pointing to a speedily tightening labor market place. A broader measure of unemployment, U6, that includes workers who say they want a job only didn't look for one last month dipped to vii.8 percent in April, its lowest level in 17 years.
And for the first time in the xx-year history of job openings data the number of unemployed workers virtually equaled the full of unfilled jobs in March. At the summit of the recession at that place were nearly seven unemployed workers for every job opening, now there is one unemployed worker for each chore vacancy. Initial claims for unemployment, usually consider a reliable indicator of the layoff rate, are running at levels non seen in forty years and are another indicator of a labor marketplace that is tightening every bit employers are less likely to allow workers go if they recollect they will have a hard time hiring new workers.
In that location are a few signs that the labor market may still have some slack left that will permit economic growth to accelerate this year and boost job growth. Labor force participation rates, which plunged during the recession, have nudged up over the last year but remain well below pre-recession level. There is an ongoing debated on how much of the labor strength participation decline since 2008 is caused by retiring baby boomers versus workers remaining out of the labor strength for a variety of other reasons. If the tightening labor market tin depict some of the sidelined workers back into the labor strength, and so chore growth may exist boosted a notch or so.
The subpar real increase in wages during this recovery may explain at to the lowest degree some of why working-age population labor force participation is still ii percentage points below 2008 levels. A skills gap betwixt what employers want and what sidelined workers have is some other reasons offered as to why labor force participation rates have not bounced back more quickly. As the labor market remains strong, wage growth may start to selection upwards and the skills gap may lessen equally employers moderate their skill demands and out-of-the-labor-forcefulness workers improve their skills. Both developments would heave labor force numbers and keep national task growth in the 1.7 to 1.eight percent range at least through the side by side year.
Minnesota Job Outlook
Job growth in Minnesota during the beginning four months of 2018 has gotten off to a deadening start, averaging just 0.seven pct on a year-over-year basis. That is nearly half the charge per unit of the 1.3 per centum annual boilerplate experienced in both 2016 and 2017 and less than half the national charge per unit. Job growth has been tailing off since the middle of last year equally job growth, afterward averaging i.6 percent over the first half of last year, slipped to 1.1 during the 2nd one-half. Minnesota job growth has topped U.Southward. job growth in 37 of the last 67 years (consistent task numbers are available back to 1950) but in just eight of the last 18 years. Chore growth in the state has lagged behind national growth for the terminal iv years. Between 2014 and 2017 employment in Minnesota increased four.3 percent compared to v.4 percent nationwide.
Minnesota's lagging job growth is most likely related to labor supply bug rather than labor demand problems. Most labor market measures support the notion that Minnesota'due south labor market is much tighter than in near states and is limiting job growth in Minnesota relative to the pace of U.South. job growth. The first indicator is Minnesota's depression three.2 unemployment rate compared to the 3.9 U.South. unemployment rate in April.
When the Great Recession started in December 2007, Minnesota'south unemployment rate was iv.vii percent while the U.Due south. rate was 5.0. Minnesota's charge per unit peaked at 8.0 percent in the middle of 2009 and dropped beneath 4.7 percent in early on 2014. The U.S. rate peaked at 10.0 percent in belatedly 2009 and did not drop below 5.0 percentage until early 2016. Minnesota's pool of unemployed workers resulting from the recession was smaller and was reduced faster compared to the national unemployment picture. Minnesota's unemployment rate has been four.0 percentage or lower since the middle of 2014 while the U.S. rate but brutal beneath the 4.0 pct mark in April. U.S. employers are just starting to bargain with trying to fill job vacancies with unemployment below 4 pct. Minnesota employers take been struggling with the same trouble since 2014.
Another measure of unemployment, the U-half dozen unemployment rate, also points to Minnesota'southward labor market place existence tighter than the U.South. market. The U-6 is the broadest measure of unemployed including discouraged workers who have quit looking for a job and part-time workers who want to piece of work full-time. The U-6 rate provides a wider measure of the pool of the individuals that are potentially available to fill up job openings. Minnesota's U-6 rate stood at half-dozen.1 percent in April compared to 7.viii nationally. Minnesota'south pool of possible hires as indicated past the lower U-vi rate is significantly smaller than nationwide.
Minnesota's low unemployment rate over the last few years isn't, however, unique to Minnesota. The country'southward 3.2 percent unemployment rate in April was the 13 lowest state charge per unit. Nearby states with unemployment rates at 3.2 percentage or lower have likewise experienced tiresome growth so far in 2018. The average over-the-yr job growth in those states during the first four months of 2018 were 0.7 percent in Indiana, 0.7 percent in Iowa, 0.v per centum in Nebraska, -i.3 percent in North Dakota, and 0.9 percent in Wisconsin. The pool of unemployed workers willing to have a job in these states has dried up but every bit in Minnesota.
Minnesota'south labor strength growth over the last year (from April 2017 to April 2018) has, surprisingly, been higher than U.S. labor force growth, 1.4 percent to 0.8 percent. The state'south labor forcefulness growth, rather than showing declining unemployed workers, has supported contempo job growth and kept the unemployment rate from falling faster. The higher than expected labor force growth has in part been fueled by individuals coming back into the labor force. Both labor strength participation and the employment-to-population ratio have climbed in Minnesota over the final year while remaining flat nationwide.
| Table 1. Minnesota and U.Due south. Labor Force Measures | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | U.S. | Source | |
| U-3 Unemployment Charge per unit | 3.2 | 3.ix | Local Expanse Unemployment Statistics |
| U-6 Unemployment Rate | vi.1 | 7.4 | Local Area Unemployment Statistics |
| Labor Force Growth | ane.4 | 0.8 | Local Area Unemployment Statistics |
| Labor Force Participation | lxx.ii -70.5 | 62.9 - 62.8 | Local Area Unemployment Statistics |
| Employment-to-Population Ratio | 67.vii - 68.ii | 60.2 - threescore.3 | Local Area Unemployment Statistics |
| Briefing Lath's Supply/Demand Ratio | 0.7 | 1.4 | Briefing Board Online Assist-Wanted Ads |
Increasing labor force participation rates and employment-to-population ratios are normally associated with tightening labor markets when all other factors are constant. Minnesota's labor force participation charge per unit and employment-to-population ratio are already significantly higher up the U.S., suggesting that the land's hereafter labor strength growth volition exist limited as the labor force participation rate and employment-to-population ratio may be rapidly approaching their upper limits in Minnesota.
Some other indicator of just how tight Minnesota's labor market has become is the state's Labor Supply/Labor Demand ratio published by the Conference Board, Inc. The Conference Board uses the monthly number of unemployed workers for labor supply and monthly online help-wanted ads for labor need. Minnesota's ratio in Apr was the fourth lowest at 0.seven. In other words, there are more online aid-wanted ads in Minnesota than there are unemployed workers. But North Dakota, Hawaii, and Colorado had lower ratios. Twelve states had a ratio below one while nationally the ratio was ane.four in Apr. Nationally there were still more unemployed workers than online assistance-wanted advertizement.
Industry Outlook
Minnesota'due south expected gain of 25,000 jobs between the 1st quarter of 2018 and the 1st quarter of 2019 will exist slightly higher than the 22,700 jobs added over the 1st quarter 2017 to 1st quarter 2018 period. Job growth in percentage terms is predicted to be 0.9 percent over the next 12 months compared to 0.eight percent over the previous 12 months. The health care and social assistance sector is again expected to add the most jobs. All but four of the 23 sectors will add together jobs just jobs growth will be beneath 1.0 percent in 15 sectors. Slight job decline is predictable in federal regime, Utilities, Information, and Natural Resource and Mining. The expanding sectors will add effectually 25,500 new positions but job cutbacks in the four sectors expected to experience declining workforces will bring net chore growth downwards to 25,000.
Half of the sectors are expected to add more jobs than final year with Food Services and Drinking Places having the largest positive turnaround from 2017. Other sectors expected to have increased hiring in 2018 relative to 2017 are Management of Companies, Finance and Insurance, and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services. Forecasts for job growth across 23 Minnesota sectors between the 1st quarter of 2018 and 1st quarter of 2019 are displayed in Effigy 2.
Natural Resources and Mining (excluding Agriculture)
After adding over 600 jobs 2 years ago, Natural Resources and Mining employment slipped slightly last year. Small job loss is expected again in 2018 equally taconite mining is expected to remain flat equally globe steel need remains restrained. Several new mines may eventually open in the Fe Range but the predictable job boost is withal a number of years into the future. Employment in this sector has boilerplate 6,800 since 2012 but is expected to exist remain below that boilerplate in 2018.
Construction
Construction jobs increased by 4,500 in 2016 and 3,000 in 2017. The down trend in Construction chore growth is expected to continue into 2018 with two,600 jobs expected to be added this year. This sector continues a wearisome and uneven recovery from the 2005 – 2006 habitation-building bosom. Construction chore gains this year will push Construction employment to the highest level since 2007 but still 5 percent below the meridian levels of 2004 – 2006.
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Payroll numbers at Minnesota's Durable Appurtenances Manufacturers slipped two years ago but rose slightly last twelvemonth. The slight upswing is expected to continue in 2018, only chore growth will be around simply 0.3 percent. Job loss in the state's Calculator and Electronic Product and Transportation Equipment Manufacturing sectors will offset expanded payrolls numbers in other durable manufacturing industries. Minnesota employment growth in this sector is likely to trail U.S. growth for the 2nd year in a row.
Nondurable Goods Manufacturing
Nondurable appurtenances manufacturing employment will expand for the tertiary straight year in 2018, simply the gain will be slower than in recent years. Chore growth this year will exist 0.3 pct down from final yr's 1.0 per centum growth as Food Manufacturing hiring is expected to cool.
Wholesale Trade
Wholesale merchandise payrolls climbed by 1.seven percent concluding year and are expected to standing to increase this year, jumping one.3 percent. Just like terminal year a majority of the hiring is expected to occur at durable goods wholesaler firms.
Retail Trade
Retail trade employment increased by one,500 jobs last yr and is predicted to add an additional 1,400 jobs this year. Employment gains at Building Textile and Garden Equipment stores and at Food and Potable Stores will offset job losses in Full general Section Stores.
Utilities
Minnesota's utilities have been gradually reducing their workforces over the last v years, and a slight subtract this yr will extend that streak to six straight years. Minnesota utilities are expected to trim employment past 0.iv percent in 2018 later on a 0.3 percent subtract concluding year. Utilities have cutting their workforces by an boilerplate of 0.nine percent since 2014.
Transportation and Warehousing
Later on adding 5,700 jobs in 2016, this sector added 1,300 jobs last year. A large share of the job gains 2 years agone was in Warehousing. About 1,100 jobs are expected to be created in this sector this year with the hiring expected to be spread beyond the Truck Transportation, Couriers and Messengers, and Warehousing industries. Transportation and Warehousing employment has been stiff since 2010, leading to employment in this sector being roughly fourteen per centum higher now than in 2007 before the recession hitting and employment dropped for three consecutive years.
Information
The information sector has been losing jobs since 2002 and will continue to shed jobs in 2018. Job loss this year is anticipated to slip another 300 jobs which is smaller than the 800 cutbacks 2 years agone. Minnesota Publishing firms have cut payroll numbers past 8,000 since 2002 while Telecommunication employment has shrunk by iv,000 jobs.
Finance and Insurance
Employment in Minnesota's Finance and Insurance sector dropped past 1,000 jobs last twelvemonth but is expected to add 700 jobs this year. Task growth in the sector has averaged 1.5 percent annually since 2011 simply is expected to add together jobs at a 0.five percent clip in 2018. More than jobs have been added in the Insurance industry than in the Credit Intermediation and Related Activities industry since 2011 in Minnesota.
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing employment was downwardly slightly last yr, slipping 0.four per centum, just is expected to rebound slightly in 2018 with job growth predicted to be 0.six percentage. Task growth in this sector in Minnesota has lagged behind national task growth in four of the last five years.
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Employment in Professional person, Scientific, and Technical Services companies was basically apartment last twelvemonth after having grown by four,200 positions in 2017. Hiring is expected to option up in 2018 with i,500 new hires anticipated. Task growth in this sector has been slightly stronger in Minnesota than nationally with employment in Minnesota upwards 22 percent since 2011 versus 20 percent nationwide.
Management of Companies
This sector is composed of employment at corporate, subsidiary, and regional headquarters offices and property companies. Employment decline by 0.8 percent (600 jobs) final year but is predicted to increment past 0.7 percent (570 jobs) this twelvemonth. The sector saw potent job growth over the 2011 – 2014 period but has seen job cutbacks since. This sector's workforce is down about 1.5 percent or one,200 positions since 2015.
Assistants, Support, Waste matter Management, and Remediation Services
Employment in the Administration and Support sector, which plunged during the Neat Recession, has regained all employment lost in 2008 and 2009 and and then some and is now five pct college than in 2007. Employment Services employment has declined over the last few years while Services to Buildings Employment has expanded. Concluding year the sector lost 630 jobs only is expected to add 570 over the next 12 months.
Educational Services
Individual Educational Services payrolls take increased every years since 2015 despite payroll reductions at private colleges, universities, and professional schools. Increasing employment at private uncomplicated and secondary schools has fueled a large share of the job growth. Employment was upwardly by 980 last year and is expected to increase past 1,100 this year.
Health Care and Social Assistance
Employment growth in the huge Health Care and Social Assistance sector slowed last year but still added 5,800 jobs in 2017. Job growth in this sector is expected to inch up from i.ii percent concluding twelvemonth to1.4 percentage this year, adding roughly 6,600 new positions.
Arts, Amusement, and Recreation
Employment in Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation, later on increasing past an average of ii.5 percent per year between 2011 and 2015, accelerated in 2016 (6.5 percent) and in 2017 (6.0 percent). The step of job growth is anticipated to wane in 2018 to 2.four percent, adding about 1,000 jobs.
Accommodation
Accommodation jobs grew by less than i pct annually between 2011 and 2016 but jumped to four.7 percent in 2016 before again falling beneath 1 percent in 2017. Job growth is predicted to be slightly higher in 2018, increasing to 1.1 percent or about 270 jobs.
Nutrient Services and Drinking Places
Task growth was consistently effectually or in a higher place 2 percent between 2011 and 2016 before slowing to 1.seven percentage in 2017. Task growth in the sector turned negative final twelvemonth, falling 1.6 percent. A slight rebound is expected this year with jobs increasing 0.6 percentage in 2018. The 0.6 percent growth translates into one,200 additional jobs as this sector employed roughly 196,000 in 2017, up from 159,000 in 2000.
All Other Services
After adding 1,400 jobs in 2016, All Other Services jobs dropped by 500 in 2017. Almost all the jobs lost last year are expected to exist regained in 2018 with payrolls numbers increasing by 440. Most of the job gain is expected in Personal and Laundry Services and Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations.
Authorities
Public sector employment, after having increased by 2,000 jobs in 2016, jumped by 7,300 positions in 2017 with one-half of the expansion occurring in land government and the other half in local government. Public sector job additions in 2018 are expected to exist about one-half every bit large as final year with most of the 2018 expansion occurring at the local government level.
Occupational Outlook
The 25,000 new jobs forecast between the kickoff quarters of 2018 and 2019 correspond the internet gain in quarterly average employment. Many more jobs volition really be created, and almost as many jobs volition be eliminated. But when all the jobs created are weighed against the jobs destroyed, the state will end up with roughly 25,000 more than nonfarm payroll jobs in the first quarter of 2019 compared to a year before.
All major occupational groups are predicted to gain jobs over the year, only job growth will be minimal, below 0.5 percent in 3 occupational groups: office and administrative support, production, and farming, fishing, and forestry occupations. Fifty-fifty though job growth will be slow in office and administrative back up occupations, an additional 1,700 jobs are expected to exist added in the state's largest occupational grouping. Construction and personal care and service occupations are expected to grow the fastest over the next 12 months. These two occupational groups volition add together the most jobs followed by healthcare practitioners and technical and educational activity, preparation, and library occupations (run into Figure 3).
Xi of the 22 occupational groups are expected to add more than 1,000 jobs each the next 12 months (see Effigy 3). Fifteen occupational groups are expected to grow faster than the 0.9 percentage overall job growth. Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations and customs and social service occupations are predicted to grow relatively fast in 2018.
Approximately 77 percent of Minnesota'due south 805 occupations are expected to feel employment growth over the next 12 months, but for many occupations the increase will exist modest. Most of the increasing occupations, 554 of the 681 occupations predicted to increase, will encounter employment gains of less than 100 jobs. These occupations combined deemed for roughly 40 percent of jobs in 2018 and are predicted to account for almost the same percent of employment growth.
Just over x percent of occupations, 102 occupations to exist precise, are expected to meet little change in employment totals over the next twelvemonth. These occupations are employed mostly in industries predicted to evidence piddling workforce growth in the short-term. Just 85 occupations will shrink over the adjacent 12 months. Chore losses in these occupations volition add up to roughly 1,460 positions. Team assemblers, executive secretaries and authoritative assistants, and electrical and electronic equipment assemblers are expected to lose the most jobs.
The fastest growing occupations volition add employees at a rate two or iii times faster than the 0.9 percent full employment expansion. Self-enrichment teachers, couriers and messengers, plumbers, pipefitters, personal care aides, and physician administration are the predicted fastest growing jobs that already have employment of 500 or more in 2018 (run into Table 2). The 20 fastest growing occupations combined will account for 3,300 new jobs or roughly 13 percent of forecasted chore growth. The majority of those jobs volition be personal care aide positions.
| Table 2. Superlative 20 Fastest Growing Occupations | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated 1st Quarter 2018 Employment | Forecast 1st Quarter 2019 Employment | Forecast Percent Change | Forecast Numerical Change | |
| Self-Enrichment Education Teachers | 6,554 | vi,786 | 3.5 | 232 |
| Couriers and Messengers | 1,054 | 1,089 | 3.iii | 35 |
| Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters | vii,932 | 8,189 | three.two | 257 |
| Personal Care Aides | seventy,092 | 72,182 | 3.0 | ii,090 |
| Physician Assistants | 2,015 | 2,074 | 2.9 | 59 |
| Construction and Related Workers, All Other | 486 | 500 | 2.9 | 14 |
| Structural Iron and Steel Workers | 1,365 | 1,404 | two.9 | 39 |
| Tour Guides and Escorts | 667 | 686 | 2.eight | 19 |
| Brickmasons and Blockmasons | i,201 | ane,235 | 2.viii | 34 |
| Roofers | 2,018 | two,074 | 2.8 | 56 |
| Septic Tank Servicers and Sewer Pipe Cleaners | 736 | 756 | 2.7 | 20 |
| Heating, Air conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers | 2,620 | 2,691 | ii.7 | 71 |
| Crane and Tower Operators | 891 | 915 | 2.7 | 24 |
| Insulation Workers, Mechanical | 863 | 886 | ii.7 | 23 |
| Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers | 4,562 | 4,683 | 2.7 | 121 |
| Statisticians | 924 | 948 | ii.6 | 24 |
| Security and Fire Alarm Systems Installers | one,054 | ane,081 | 2.half-dozen | 27 |
| Dental Laboratory Technicians | 747 | 766 | 2.five | xix |
| Telecommunications Line Installers and Repairers | i,068 | 1,095 | 2.5 | 27 |
| Coaches and Scouts | 4,152 | 4,257 | 2.5 | 105 |
Many of the occupations that are expected to add the nigh jobs are familiar, having made the top 20 listing in past years (see Table 3). These occupations are either full-bodied in industries that are expanding faster than the overall chore growth like construction or health care or are large sized occupations that add together workers fifty-fifty when chore growth is moderate. Personal intendance aides, home health aides, and registered nurses are examples of occupations adding significant levels of new workers every bit a issue of relatively stiff health care and social assistance sector employment growth. Stock clerks and order fillers, customer service representatives, and all other business operations specialists are median to big size occupations that can be counted on to add sizable number of jobs even when overall chore growth is moderate. Almost 38 percent of employment growth expected between the first quarters of 2018 and 2019 will likely be in one of the 20 occupations listed in Tabular array 3.
| Table iii. Top 20 Occupations Adding the Most Jobs | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated 1st Quarter 2018 Employment | Forecast 1st Quarter 2019 Employment | Forecast Percent Change | Forecast Numerical Change | ||
| 1 | Personal Care Aides | 70,092 | 72,182 | three.0 | 2,090 |
| two | Combined Nutrient Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food | 64,403 | 65,148 | 1.two | 745 |
| three | Registered Nurses | 62,261 | 62,902 | 1.0 | 641 |
| 4 | Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 45,128 | 45,754 | 1.4 | 626 |
| 5 | Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 33,637 | 34,110 | 1.4 | 473 |
| half dozen | Full general and Operations Managers | 42,727 | 43,192 | 1.1 | 465 |
| 7 | Home Wellness Aides | 25,716 | 26,139 | 1.6 | 423 |
| 8 | Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 37,569 | 37,962 | i.0 | 393 |
| nine | Teacher Administration | 34,810 | 35,196 | ane.ane | 386 |
| 10 | Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 32,401 | 32,767 | 1.ane | 366 |
| eleven | Stock Clerks and Club Fillers | 33,368 | 33,713 | one.0 | 345 |
| 12 | Accountants and Auditors | 28,807 | 29,120 | one.1 | 313 |
| xiii | Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers | 15,214 | 15,526 | 2.1 | 312 |
| 14 | Retail Salespersons | 81,203 | 81,489 | 0.4 | 286 |
| 15 | Elementary Schoolhouse Teachers, Except Special Education | xxx,854 | 31,129 | 0.9 | 275 |
| 16 | Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers | 14,730 | 14,995 | 1.viii | 265 |
| 17 | Fiscal Managers | 15,281 | 15,542 | i.7 | 261 |
| 18 | Customer Service Representatives | 57,454 | 57,714 | 0.5 | 260 |
| 19 | Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters | 7,932 | eight,189 | 3.ii | 257 |
| 20 | Business organization Operations Specialists, All Other | 26,406 | 26,648 | 0.9 | 242 |
Job openings related to employment growth, while an important component of the chore market, account for a fairly small piece of all task openings available to jobseekers, particularly as job growth slows and the number of retirements swells. Most chore openings are created by employee turnover. A nurse working at a hospital job hops over to a health clinic for better hours. An engineer switches careers becoming a high schoolhouse math teacher. A xx-something waitress leaves her job at a eating place for a database administrator task afterward completing her estimator science degree. Or a lx-year erstwhile machinist retires from his manufacturing firm after working at that place for thirty years.
Electric current Population Survey information, which rails occupational changes past workers, can be used to estimate two chief sources of job openings. Exit openings occur when a person property a job leaves that chore by exiting the labor force. Such exits ascend when workers retire, leave a task to have care of family members, or leave a job to return to school. The other main source of openings is transfer openings which are created when workers switch occupations. Over the side by side 12 months roughly 178,000 transfer openings are expected, with 134,000 exit openings and the 25,000 openings created by employment growth.
In all, an estimated 339,000 occupational openings will demand to be filled over the adjacent 12 months in Minnesota when the 3 types of chore openings above are combined. Only a handful of occupations are expected to have no openings this year. These occupations are small in size with less than 20 positions. All other occupations will have some job openings even if the number of jobs in the occupation are decreasing since openings from exiting and transferring will be occurring.
For example, the number of workers employed as team assemblers is expected to fall to 22,300 during the first quarter of 2019 from 22,500 during the first quarter of 2018. Despite the loss of 200 team assembler position during the twelvemonth, at that place will exist an estimated two,600 openings for team assemblers. Get out openings will create 1,000 of the openings while openings from transfers will created another 1,600 openings. Table four lists the Height xx occupations when ranked by total task openings. The occupations expected to have the most total job openings over the next yr tend to be occupations that already employ a large number of workers and take high turnover rates. Leading the near job openings list are combined food preparation and serving workers, cashiers, and personal care aides.
| Table 4. Top Occupations with Most Total Job Openings | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated 1st Quarter 2018 Employment | Forecast 1st Quarter 2019 Employment | Forecast Percentage Change | Forecast Numerical Alter | Forecast Full Job Openings | ||
| 1 | Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 64,403 | 65,148 | 1.2 | 745 | 12,480 |
| 2 | Cashiers | 63,901 | 64,106 | 0.3 | 205 | 12,079 |
| 3 | Personal Care Aides | 70,092 | 72,182 | 3.0 | 2,090 | 12,044 |
| 4 | Retail Salespersons | 81,203 | 81,489 | 0.4 | 286 | 11,892 |
| 5 | Waiters and Waitresses | 48,158 | 48,381 | 0.5 | 223 | 9,270 |
| 6 | Customer Service Representatives | 57,454 | 57,714 | 0.5 | 260 | 7,524 |
| 7 | Office Clerks, General | 55,514 | 55,692 | 0.3 | 178 | 6,620 |
| 8 | Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 45,128 | 45,754 | 1.four | 626 | 6,443 |
| 9 | Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 37,569 | 37,962 | one.1 | 393 | 5,493 |
| 10 | Stock Clerks and Guild Fillers | 33,368 | 33,713 | 1.0 | 345 | 4,565 |
| 11 | Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 33,637 | 34,110 | 1.4 | 473 | 4,037 |
| 12 | Accounting, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 34,778 | 34,888 | 0.3 | 110 | 3,941 |
| 13 | General and Operations Managers | 42,727 | 43,192 | 1.1 | 465 | 3,919 |
| xiv | Teacher Administration | 34,810 | 35,196 | 1.1 | 386 | 3,904 |
| 15 | Registered Nurses | 62,261 | 62,902 | 1.0 | 641 | three,794 |
| 16 | Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing | 32,401 | 32,767 | 1.1 | 366 | iii,623 |
| 17 | Cooks, Restaurant | 24,488 | 24,686 | 0.8 | 198 | 3,606 |
| 18 | Nursing Administration | 31,265 | 31,249 | -0.one | -16 | 3,463 |
| nineteen | Secretaries and Authoritative Assistants | 31,278 | 31,306 | 0.i | 28 | iii,354 |
| 20 | Bartenders | xix,160 | 19,341 | 0.9 | 181 | 3,316 |
Notes
The Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Evolution (DEED) produces two sets of employment projections or forecasts. One set, long-term employment projections, looks x years into the hereafter and is aimed at young adults planning a career or older workers because a career change.
Other jobseekers, such as dislocated workers or labor forcefulness re-entrants, need information on what the job marketplace will wait like next month or ix months downward the route. Brusque-term forecasts strive to make full that need. This report provides a forecast for the state's job market from the 1st quarter of 2018 to the 1st quarter of 2019. Brusque-term forecasts are updated each quarter to account for recent economic developments. These short-term job forecasts, combined with Human action's Job Vacancy Survey and Occupations in Demand (OID), assistance jobseekers identify occupations that are currently in demand also as occupations that volition be in demand over the next year.
Short-term forecasts of industry-based employment are based on monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) employment data from January 1990 through March 2018. CES employment data cover merely wage and salary employment or about 92 per centum of full jobs in Minnesota. Estimates and forecasts of agronomical jobs, cocky-employed farmers, self-employed nonagricultural workers, and domestic workers employed by households are not included.
Employment forecasts are carried out for 70 industries, mostly at the 2-digit Northward American Industry Classification Arrangement (NAICS) level, using five alternative statistical methodologies. National and Minnesota leading indicators are incorporated in the models. Projected industrial employment is converted to occupational employment forecasts using occupational staffing data from the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey.
Job opening forecasts for occupations are the sum of job openings arising from employment growth, from workers exiting the labor force entirely, and from workers transferring occupations. Chore openings from employment growth, the 25,000 jobs forecasted to be added over the next year, will be the smallest source of chore openings over the next twelvemonth, accounting for roughly 7 pct of openings.
Workers retiring or leaving the labor force for other reasons will account for 134,000 task openings or about 40 per centum of full openings. Chore openings from workers transferring occupations will total 178,000 over the year or 53 percent of all job openings. Job openings related to a worker switching employer but staying in the same occupation are excluded from the 339,000 job openings forecasted to occur over the next 12 months. Leave and transfer job opening estimates are based on national rates of job separation adult the Bureau of Labor Statistics using Current Population Survey (CPS) data.
Job Growth Slows Again in First Q 2018
Source: https://mn.gov/deed/newscenter/publications/review/may-2018/mn-job-outook.jsp